How I Used Game Theory to Model UN Climate Negotiations (And What It Predicted About COP30)

The Idea

I built a coalitional game theory model of multi-party climate negotiations using publicly available position papers and historical voting data.

What the Model Got Right

• Predicted the formation of the Small Island States + LDC bloc in pre-COP30 alignment.
• Identified the EU-Mercosur tension point before it became headline news.
• Flagged three swing-vote nations whose positions shifted exactly as the model suggested they would, given their domestic constraints.

What It Got Wrong

The model under-weighted bilateral side deals signed outside formal negotiations. This is a known limitation of coalitional approaches and I'm working on a fix.

Code & Data

Fully open. Reproducible Jupyter notebooks linked from my profile.